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Canada/Japan

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Posted 7 months ago
trueviking
Member

if we beat Japan with a bonus point, Tonga would have to beat France with a bonus point to finish ahead of us....we would then finish fourth....

if we beat Japan with a bonus point and Tonga beat france without a bonus point we would finish third on the tie break.

if we beat Japan without a bonus point, we would need France to tie or beat Tonga by any score to finish third.

if we tie Japan, Tonga would have to beat or tie France to finish third. Even if they lost with a bonus point we would beat them in the head to head tie break.

......assuming that we get nothing from the all blacks game.

Posted 7 months ago #
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Posted 7 months ago
trueviking
Member

DTH's twitter seems to indicate that his shoulder is recovering....doesn't say he isn't going to play.

Posted 7 months ago #
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Posted 7 months ago
rusty_lock
Member

Sportsbet.com.au has Canada paying 1.40 and Japan paying 2.88 and TAB.co.nz has Canada at 1.35 and Japan at 3.00. So the bookies seem to heavily favour Canada. I hope they are right.

I'm looking forward to seeing Evans in the lineup. IMO he is one of the most dynamic players we have. Hearn just didn't seem to inject himself in either of the two games he started. It wasn't that he was bad just invisible.

Posted 7 months ago #
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Posted 7 months ago
Hollywood
Member

CANADA v JAPAN
Monday, September 26th, 2011
10:30 CDT / 11:30 EDT / TSN

Rugby Canada Story
IRB RWC Story
TSN Story

The links have stories on the mostly stand-pat line-up. Matt Evans is back from an injury. Jeremy Kyne is also added to the sub list.

1. Hubert Buydens (PRAIRIE WOLF PACK)
2. Pat Riordan (captain) (BC BEARS)
3. Jason Marshall (BC BEARS)
4. Jebb Sinclair (LONDON IRISH)
5. Jamie Cudmore (ASM CLERMONT AUVERGNE)
6. Adam Kleeberger (BC BEARS)
7. Chauncey O'Toole (OSPREYS)
8. Aaron Carpenter (PLYMOUTH ALBION)
9. Ed Fairhurst (UBC OLD BOYS RAVENS)
10. Ander Monro (vice captain) (ONTARIO BLUES)
11. Phil Mackenzie (ESHER)
12. Ryan Smith (PRAIRIE WOLF PACK)
13. DTH van der Merwe (GLASGOW WARRIORS)
14. Matt Evans (UNATTACHED)
15. James Pritchard (BEDFORD BLUES)

Reserves
16. Ryan Hamilton (BC BEARS)
17. Scott Franklin (PRAIRIE WOLF PACK)
18. Tyler Hotson (PLYMOUTH ALBION)
19. Jeremy Kyne (PRAIRIE WOLF PACK)
20. Sean White (BC BEARS)
21. Nathan Hirayama (BC BEARS)
22. Conor Trainor (BC BEARS)

TOURNAMENT OUTLOOK

Each pool has 3 games remaining, meaning one team in each has 2 games left and the others have only one. The top two seeded teams in each pool have also played already. Also, no pool has a match-up where you can say the winner goes on and the loser goes home. Keep in mind that wins are worth 4 points and bonus points awarded for getting 4 tries in a game and for a loss by 7 or fewer points. Here's a pool-by-pool run-down:

Pool A is led by New Zealand. They seem destined to advance along with France. Here's the thumbnail:

New Zealand 15 (v Canada)
France 10 (v Tonga)
Tonga 5 (v France)
Canada 4 (v Japan and v New Zealand)
Japan 0 (v Canada)

A Canada win over Japan should wrap up 3rd place. It is hard to picture Tonga defeating France or Canada defeating the All Blacks. Those are merely theoretical possibilities in my opinion. Canada would be happy to defeat Japan, grab third place, and the automatic qualifying berth for the 2015 World Cup which goes with it.

To advance Tonga must beat France, score at least 4 tries, and win by 8 or points, all the while hoping that Canada gets no more than 5 points in two games.

Assuming France beats Tonga, Canada must hope France scores fewer than 4 tries in the process. Canada must then win both remaining matches and score 4 or more tries to get the bonus point in each game.

Pool B featured Sunday's 13-12 comeback win for Argentina over Scotland. Argentina was able to score the only try in the game and IMO was deserving of the win. Here's a snapshot of the pool:

England 14 (v Scotland)
Argentina 10 (v Georgia)
Scotland 10 (v England)
Georgia 0 (v Romania and v Argentina)
Romania 0 (v Georgia)

Georgia and Romania are outclassed and are non-factors. Argentina previously lost 13-9 to England. This has everybody running what-if scenarios if Scotland could beat England. IMO it is hard to picture any 5 point wins between contenders in this pool. A team needs 4 tries for the bonus point and I don't see that happening. It is also hard to imagine Scotland beating England by 8 or more points, needed to deny them a bonus point in the loss. So Scotland could beat England and yet be eliminated.

Pool C witnessed the upset of the tournament thus far when Ireland knocked off Australia. This pool has also produced the most one-sided mismatches. Russia are outclassed and the USA are fairly mediocre. Here's the snapshot:

Ireland 13 (v Italy)
Australia 10 (v Russia)
Italy 5 (v USA and v Ireland)
USA 4 (v Italy)
Russia 9 (v Australia)

The Russians have been dreadful. Their game with Australia could be the biggest blow-out of the tournament. It is hard to imagine Italy beating Ireland. However, the Irish have been known to come up with surprises, both positive and negative. I would love to see the USA knock off Italy. But the Italian scrum should be able to dominate and the slow-moving USA response probably won't be enough.

Pool D had all the pre-tournament hype but so far it has looked like just another pool. South Africa edged Wales and Wales edged Samoa. The fireworks happened off the field when Samoan Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu unloaded on the IRB scheduling via Twitter. The Namibians are the weakest team in the tournament and Fiji have been a disappointment. Of note, some Fijian players had to quit their army jobs because since their military took over the country, they are not allowed in New Zealand. Here's the numbers:

South Africa 14 (v Samoa)
Samoa 10 (v South Africa)
Wales 4 (v Namibia and v Fiji)
Fiji 5 (v Wales)
Namibia 0 (v Wales)

I have to think that Fiji could beat Wales, since they did in the last World Cup. And Samoa have an outside chance against South Africa. However, Fiji was so dominated by South Africa and Samoa that I believe Samoa will need a win with a bonus point to pip the Welsh. And I don't see that happening. It would be too bad to see no Pacific Islanders in the playoff round.

QUARTER-FINALS

This is how the draw would work if the expected teams win:

Ireland v Wales
England v France
South Africa v Australia
New Zealand v Argentina

Posted 7 months ago #
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Posted 7 months ago
nnt
Member

I like the scenario where Canada beats Japan for 5 points, Tonga pulls off a win without allowing France a point, and then Canada gets 2 points against New Zealand.

Positive thinking without a doubt but wouldn't New Zealand be happy for France to be left out of the quarterfinals!

Most of the commentators around NZ expect the AB's to field the same line-up against Canada as they had against France with at most one change. A small contingent is suggesting keeping key players out of harm's way but my sense is that there's a greater fear of tampering and over-thinking.

Posted 7 months ago #
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Posted 7 months ago
O Canada
Member

^ 2 points from NZ nah, I've been telling everybody at work that we will due them a favor and do something they haven't been able to do for years, eliminate France from the world cup. Tonga to beat France and Canada to beat NZ with Bonus point. lol

I expect there will be a few more changes to the NZ side as they know what they need to do and who is going to do it. I think we will see Miles get his 100 (Dagg on the bench) and Kahui, and posible Carter to be rested, and Cowan in for Weepu (bench).

Anyhow, lets get past Japan first, win with bonus point.
Lets go Canada

Posted 7 months ago #
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Posted 7 months ago
knower
Member

What have we done so far, at this World Cup, that has
gotten posters so Excited?
BEATEN TONGA BY 5 POINTS!!
Previous WC 1987 37-4, WC 2003 24-7 WINS over TONGA
LOST TO FRANCE BY 27 POINTS!!
Our GOAL,at this World Cup, were wins over TONGA and JAPAN.
Those were the same goals for Tonga and Japan, by the way.
Tonight we have a chance to realize those goals.
Lots of Pressure on Both teams to Succeed. No Excuses!
Should be a great game. Go CANADA!!

Posted 7 months ago #
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Posted 7 months ago
sm00thrider
Member

Canada will win by 15. Japan is hurting and lacks confidence at this stage of the tournament.

Posted 7 months ago #
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Posted 7 months ago
Moosehead
Moderator

Does this mean Canada finishes 4th and Japan 3rd?

Posted 7 months ago #
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Posted 7 months ago
Faust
Moderator

Canada will be third, maybe after first half turd is the correct number. Kudos to the blondes and second half replacements.

Rucks were horrible the first half, too one man superstars in running.

Came in over confident and too individualistic.

Why was Evans kicking after Monroe was having a bad game!!

DVTH and Mackenzie saved the day and were awesome. Buydens had an ok game and Marshall did the bone play. Good play by TRainor.

I hope KC sits some individual stars on the pine and play the ones who came out and played like team in the second half.

Posted 7 months ago #
winger14
Moderator

Not a good first half. Lineouts weren't working, BUT we put it together in the second half and almost stole the game away from Japan. Japan played very well in the first half...second half not so much.

I didn't see one off stars. I saw us trying too hard and forcing the play in the first half. 2nd half we re-set and were better.

Discipline was disappointing throughout and needs be addressed. All that being said, we are a much better outfit and and have improved so much from 4 years ago. This is a better Canadian team that plays with heart and for each other.

Well done boys, we found a way to get the points, even though we didn't play as well as we could. Enjoy the game against the All Blacks. You have nothing to lose!!!

Winger14

Posted 7 months ago #
Frank
Member

The biggest difference from last world cup and this world cup is not heart. The biggest difference is luck. Canada was lucky that Tonga didn't dress 11 of their best players. Canada was lucky to come back and tie Japan. Canada will be lucky to beat to NZ.

What's up with DTH and PM? I have never seen two guys try to make a heart that looked like they couldn't form a circle. They dyed their hair blonde "duh" that is so yesterday. But I'm Ok with that. They wore pink shoes, I'm ok with that but trying to make a heart like a couple of junior high school girls, well.

Canada will finish 3rd in their pool and DT will now have no excuses in getting the big sponsor. NO EXCUSES

5 things I think I think I think that Hydes will not write about

Best sub of the night, was RH for PR. That should be his retirement match.

Worst decision was JK for anyone else that was left in street clothes.

Worst announcer by far is GR, get a suit jacket that fits, you are bustin

Biggest heart, AK

Great use of the pick n' go

See you all in 2015!! shits & giggles

Posted 7 months ago #
growapair
Member

At the end of the day, it just looked like the pressure got to the Canadians. Mistakes and handling errors have been an issue for them every game but it was a whole different level this match. I would have thought the opening try would have settled the nerves but that didn't seem to be the case.

I don't want to slag off the ref (who did Canada a few favours) but he did a dreadful job of policing the breakdown. There was a Japanese player lying around the ball, not rolling away, in virtually every ruck. And Kaplan only penalized Japan once for it. That made it very difficult for Canada to get clean, quick ball and you have to wonder how much that upset their rhythm.

The bottom line for me is that, even though they played a bit of a clanker in one of their most important matches, they didn't fold. Crowley has them playing with belief in themselves and they gutted it out and got the points they needed to (hopefully) finish third.

Regardless of how the naysayers on here spin it - who were calling for an 0-4 record, I remind you - this has been a pretty good showing for Canada and results in automatic qualification for 2015, increased IRB funding, and better scheduling with the top teams going forward. Well done!

Posted 7 months ago #
Faust
Moderator

Where they lost was in the rucks. It is one after the another individuals trying to pick and go and getting no where in the first half. While Japan was getting yard or two every play, Canada was going backwards.

Ball handling was horrible, because they were being rushed. They did not play like a team.

I add that I hope it is AM goes to the fb or wing position. He does not have the size or impact for centre position.

DVTH, Trainor, and PM were the class of the backs. Sorry, Frank, if they play like they did, they can wear pink tutus.

I hope KC really plays the players that he believes that will impact in 2015. Play TP.

After all this, I really do not see a major difference between 2007 and 2011. Tonga 2011 is not the same calibre as Fiji 2007.

Posted 7 months ago #
irishlock
Member

Faust, Fiji 2011 is not the same calibre as Fiji 2007. You play whoever you have in the group. That's just the way it is.

Poor first half, improved second half. They will be releived to have escaped with a draw after the first half I think. Many positives still though. I would like to see Ryan Hamilton get the start at hooker as well as Trainor and Evans starting. Maybe Taylor Paris off the bench. Its a big ask to start his first world cup game ever vs the ABs.

Posted 7 months ago #
bisquit
Member

Canada forward's basics let them down badly in Lineouts and fringe pick and go play was disjointed and disorganized. The backline defence was very poor, DTH included.
If you have ever seen Taylor Paris play at any level then you would know he is head and shoulders above the likes of Smith, Evans, Hiriyama, Hearn both in attack and defence and in the same mould as DTH and Phil Mackenzie. He is a game breaker and should have been in every game to date.
Bar the try scored by PM, DTH gets the ball every time and still manages to beat two defenders, doubtful to happen against the ABs. He has two defenders on him because Smith draws no one in with his lack of presence and pace.
Nothing to lose now so hopefully the coaches will show some balls and pick CT and TP to start.

Posted 7 months ago #
winger14
Moderator

On the midfield discussion. Our first try was set up by Ryan Smith drawing his defender and putting DTH into a gap. Good play by Smith.

All that being said, we do not have a big physical inside centre. We have who we have. We'd all love a Nonu and Conrad Smith type of centre combo, unfortunately we don't.

DTH is an elite back, but he doesn't have the kind of presence Nonu has. Trainor will be another good one, but again he doesn't bring that same ability to break the line like Nonu (or even the starting Japanese 12).

I hope some of the guys that didn't get much time in will get more against the Kiwis.

Winger14

Posted 7 months ago #
trueviking
Member

rucks were a problem...they still should have won....japan essentially got points in every opportunity they could....they kicked every penalty and converted every try....they were almost never turned away when they got close.

canada didnt convert, missed easy penatlies and handed japan the last 3 points from sheer stupidity....we left way more points on the field than japan did....i dont get the media attitude that we were lucky to come away with a draw.....in my eyes japan barely hung on and had the game been 5 minutes longer canada would have won easily.

pritchard was a huge loss too...he may have been the difference.

nigel reed was a bit over-confident that tonga will get nothinbg from france...i dont think that is as much a slam dunk as they make it seem....you never know with france....they can lay an egg quite easily.

i really hope kleeberger gets a contract from this exposure...he has played quite well overall (except the first half yesterday)

i think reese is a good commentator...his jacket bustin give him more credibility.

Posted 7 months ago #
bisquit
Member

winger14 said:
On the midfield discussion. Our first try was set up by Ryan Smith drawing his defender and putting DTH into a gap. Good play by Smith.

All that being said, we do not have a big physical inside centre. We have who we have. We'd all love a Nonu and Conrad Smith type of centre combo, unfortunately we don't.

DTH is an elite back, but he doesn't have the kind of presence Nonu has. Trainor will be another good one, but again he doesn't bring that same ability to break the line like Nonu (or even the starting Japanese 12).

I hope some of the guys that didn't get much time in will get more against the Kiwis.

Winger14

Yes Smith did link with DTH on the break that eventually led to a try. He can make short passes in both directions, as you would hope by 50 caps.
Connor Trainer is 6'3 and 240+ pounds, can make short and long passes and is one of the fastest players in Canada, he can also hit not dive at ankles and hope for help ala Smith. I guess you missed him bashing through the Tongans when he got the opportunity to play.

Posted 7 months ago #
Frank
Member

On the over throw, Carpenter set up RS. Dr Richard Kimble could have the pass that RS made to DTH. RS should thank DTH for saving his backside on numerous occasions during this match let alone the other two.

Watch the game again and see how many times RS runs into a position so that he does not have to make an open field tackle. Put in CT and stop pissin' about.

Posted 7 months ago #
growapair
Member

I agree up to a point with Frank on this one. But you have to acknowledge that Smith has been capped 50 times now, for different coaches, so it’s not like he hasn’t made a contribution for Canada. He has. I just think he’s had his day and we’re fortunate to have someone of the calibre of Trainor who should be given the jersey.

To winger’s point about comparisons to Nonu: There’s not too many centres in the game that have his presence or ability to break the line, but Trainor comes a lot closer than Smith. And that’s before he’s been given much exposure to this level of play. So, who knows?

Posted 7 months ago #
Moosehead
Moderator

Would a tie against NZ get us into the 1/4 Finals?

Posted 7 months ago #
knower
Member

knower said:
What have we done so far, at this World Cup, that has
gotten posters so Excited?
BEATEN TONGA BY 5 POINTS!!
Previous WC 1987 37-4, WC 2003 24-7 WINS over TONGA
LOST TO FRANCE BY 27 POINTS!!
Our GOAL,at this World Cup, were wins over TONGA and JAPAN.
Those were the same goals for Tonga and Japan, by the way.
Tonight we have a chance to realize those goals.
Lots of Pressure on Both teams to Succeed. No Excuses!
Should be a great game.
Simply put, "Our Goal was to win Two Games"
Canada achieved 75% of that and gets a ticket to 2015.
Of course, Canada has gone to all World Cups.
Will Canada receive more IRB money than Tonga,Japan,USA?
I doubt it!
When you watch the game for a second (third) time take
note of how much DTH does in attack and defense. He was,
IMO, Man of the Match!
AB result matters little. Of course our guys will play
with heart. Expect a severe beating of 50 plus points.
Can not imagine Ryan Smith being selected in the centers
for this one. Crowley is not that Cruel or Blind.

Posted 7 months ago #
rugbyflare
Member

Connor Trainer is 6'3 and 240+ pounds

RWC stats: CT is 95kg... not even 210lbs. He is 6'2", not 6'3".

All that being said, we do not have a big physical inside centre.

We do have big physical centres, they just weren't chosen to be part of the WC squad. Geoff Warden, Mozac Samson, Nick Blevins, Brody Henderson, Jo Dolsau, Connor McCan. We had options, not saying they are all world class material but some of those players deserved a serious look.

Worst decision was JK for anyone else that was left in street clothes.

Because he actually blew past rucks? Or because he wasn't a selfish ball carrier? As surprised as everyone was that he got on, he made a positive impact.

Watch the game again and see how many times RS runs into a position so that he does not have to make an open field tackle.

RWC stats: RS 11.7 tackles per game. DTH 8.3, PM 4.0.
Also, FYI... Kleeberger 11.3 tackles per game... and all the other backrow are less than that. Only Jaimie Cudmore beats RS and that's because of the 25 tackles he made at the fringes during the Tonga game. Eventually you have to give credit where it's due.

Of all the mistakes in the game, I'm surprised Monro isn't getting more grief... Could have won it...

Posted 7 months ago #
trueviking
Member

Moosehead said:
Would a tie against NZ get us into the 1/4 Finals?

only a win would...and tonga would also have to beat france.

Posted 7 months ago #
trueviking
Member

Of all the mistakes in the game, I'm surprised Monro isn't getting more grief... Could have won it...

munro should have won the game, no question but he did at least score a try and then come through when it was all on the line.

the person who deserves the most grief is without question Jason Marshall....his boneheaded penalty for stupidity, handed them the 2 points on a platter.

Posted 7 months ago #
Bandito
Member

I have to say, it's been a pleasure to watch Japan in attack most of the time. Above all the speed of service Tanaka gives them is possibly the best at the RWC. In addition, the running lines by the backs and the ability of the forwards to use that quick ball, running off the back of the ruck and gaining 2m, not setting up a pod that gets hit 2m behind the gain line (hate this tactic!).

Teams with more size and ability would do well to emulate those simple things to a higher degree of quality!

Posted 7 months ago #
winger14
Moderator

rugbyflare said:

Connor Trainer is 6'3 and 240+ pounds

RWC stats: CT is 95kg... not even 210lbs. He is 6'2", not 6'3".

Worst decision was JK for anyone else that was left in street clothes.

Because he actually blew past rucks? Or because he wasn't a selfish ball carrier? As surprised as everyone was that he got on, he made a positive impact.

Watch the game again and see how many times RS runs into a position so that he does not have to make an open field tackle.

RWC stats: RS 11.7 tackles per game. DTH 8.3, PM 4.0.
Also, FYI... Kleeberger 11.3 tackles per game... and all the other backrow are less than that. Only Jaimie Cudmore beats RS and that's because of the 25 tackles he made at the fringes during the Tonga game. Eventually you have to give credit where it's due.

I think JK is supposed to be the referee...Jonathan Kaplan

With respect to Ryan Smith's defensive game, the stats don't lie. Too bad that we have a loud few that refuse to acknowledge his contribution. he did also give Jeb Sinclair the final pass for a score in the Tonga match. Ryan Smith has played well.

Connor Trainor has been decent. His run to set up Carpenter's try in the Tonga match was crucial to that score. Trainor is not a consistent line breaker (we don't have one), and his defence still needs work. Maybe he will be a constant presence, and I hope he gets the opportunities to continue to develop over the next 4 years.

With respect to the other players mentioned, they didn't make the cut / weren't selected / weren't available whatever. They weren't there.

Winger14

Posted 7 months ago #
bisquit
Member

"Trainor is not a consistent line breaker (we don't have one), and his defence still needs work."
Every player in the world's defence still needs work agree with that. What I don't agree with is the rest of your statement because he has been a consistent player at every level and even at the WC with the small amount of time he has had.
Anyhow, I hope they do play Smith once more to see him defend against the world's best. Good luck to him and all the rest, what an opportunity to measure oneself.

Posted 7 months ago #
RugbyFan99
Member

knower said:
When you watch the game for a second (third) time take
note of how much DTH does in attack and defense. He was,
IMO, Man of the Match!

Planet Rugby agrees with you knower. They gave DTH man of the match.
http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,9989_7205489,00.html

Posted 7 months ago #

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